Odds of pulling a Ultra Rare
A Ultra Rare is the ex / full-art ultra rares that back up the top chase in every set. Across the 8 recent Pokémon sets we model, one shows up about 1 in 13 to 1 in 18 booster packs, roughly 31.0% to 87.0% per sealed unit. Pokémon publishes no pack odds, so these ride a disclosed community-sampled model, ranked and linked to every card below.
Ultra Rare odds by set
| Set | Odds / pack | Per unit | Sealed | Cost to pull one |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising18 cards | 1 in 18 | 87.0% | €140 · 36p | €71 |
| Perfect Order18 cards | 1 in 18 | 87.0% | €130 · 36p | €66 |
| Phantasmal Flames17 cards | 1 in 18 | 87.0% | €150 · 36p | €76 |
| Mega Evolution22 cards | 1 in 18 | 87.0% | €160 · 36p | €81 |
| Destined Rivals22 cards | 1 in 18 | 87.0% | €170 · 36p | €86 |
| Journey Together11 cards | 1 in 18 | 87.0% | €110 · 36p | €56 |
| Prismatic Evolutions12 cards | 1 in 13 | 37.2% | €70 · 6p | €156 |
| 15116 cards | 1 in 17 | 31.0% | €60 · 6p | €167 |
“Cost to pull one” is the sealed price divided by the expected number of Ultra Rares of any kind per sealed unit, so it is the cost for any card in the slot, not your specific one (that costs much more). Odds are a binomial approximation across independent packs.
The Ultra Rares worth chasing
The priciest Ultra Rares across these sets, each with its own pull odds. Tap any card for its full cost-to-pull, BUY / RIP verdict and modelled supply.
Charizard ex151 · #183 · 1 in 265 packs€48.25
Mew ex151 · #193 · 1 in 265 packs€34.03
Mega Charizard X exPhantasmal Flames · #109 · 1 in 310 packs€25.31
Blastoise ex151 · #184 · 1 in 265 packs€24.91
Lillie's DeterminationMega Evolution · #169 · 1 in 400 packs€23.11
Venusaur ex151 · #182 · 1 in 265 packs€19.04
Alakazam ex151 · #188 · 1 in 265 packs€18.87
Team Rocket's Mewtwo exDestined Rivals · #213 · 1 in 400 packs€17.90
Ninetales ex151 · #186 · 1 in 265 packs€17.18
Zapdos ex151 · #192 · 1 in 265 packs€15.44
Meowth exPerfect Order · #107 · 1 in 325 packs€15.04
Mega Lucario exMega Evolution · #160 · 1 in 400 packs€12.35How Ultra Rare odds work
Every booster pack has one slot that can land on the Ultra Rare tier. The pack-odds figure is the chance that slot resolves to any Ultra Rare at all; divide it across the Ultra Rares in the set and you get each individual card's odds. Summed back up across the slot, the tier lands about 1 in 13 to 1 in 18 packs.
Because each pack is independent, the “1 in N” is a long-run average, not a promise for the next box. Per box, the chance of at least one is higher (shown above) because you get multiple independent tries.
Odds ride a disclosed, versioned community-sampled model (SV/Mega community aggregate, 2026-06 (rev2); Prismatic community sample (TCGplayer 1,200 packs, god-pack-adjusted), 2025; 151 community sample (PokePatch 1,000+ packs), 2025) because the Pokémon TCG publishes no official pack odds. Figures are a binomial-per-pack approximation over Cardmarket-counted pools. Prices are Cardmarket EUR trend references, not sold-price records. As of 2026-07-14. Informational only, not financial advice. Foilio is an independent fan project, unaffiliated with any publisher.
Questions, answered
What are the odds of pulling a Ultra Rare in Pokémon?+
Across the 8 recent sets we model, a Ultra Rare appears roughly 1 in 13 to 1 in 18 booster packs, or about 31.0% to 87.0% per sealed booster unit. Exact odds vary by set, the per-set table above shows each one. Pokémon does not publish official pack odds, so these are from a disclosed, community-sampled model, not the publisher.
How many packs (or boxes) to pull a Ultra Rare?+
Because the rate is about 1 in 13 to 1 in 18 packs, you would open on the order of that many packs, on average, for a single Ultra Rare. Averages are not guarantees: a slot is independent every pack, so you can hit early or go far past the average. See the per-set "cost to pull" column for the expected spend cracking sealed at each set's box price.
Is it cheaper to pull a Ultra Rare or just buy the single?+
Almost always cheaper to buy the exact card. Cost-to-pull is the box price divided by how many copies of the whole Ultra Rare slot you expect per box, and it is spread across every card in the slot, so pulling YOUR specific Ultra Rare costs far more than any one single. Each card's page has its own BUY / RIP verdict.
Are these official Pokémon pull rates?+
No. The Pokémon TCG does not publish pack odds, so every figure here rides a disclosed, versioned community-sampled model (SV/Mega community aggregate, 2026-06 (rev2); Prismatic community sample (TCGplayer 1,200 packs, god-pack-adjusted), 2025; 151 community sample (PokePatch 1,000+ packs), 2025). Prices are Cardmarket EUR trend references, not sold-price records. Informational only, not financial advice.