Odds of pulling a Special Illustration Rare
A Special Illustration Rare is the full-art character cards (the “SIR” chase) that sit at the top of most modern Pokémon sets. Across the 8 recent Pokémon sets we model, one shows up about 1 in 31 to 1 in 91 booster packs, roughly 11.4% to 32.8% per sealed unit. Pokémon publishes no pack odds, so these ride a disclosed community-sampled model, ranked and linked to every card below.
Special Illustration Rare odds by set
| Set | Odds / pack | Per unit | Sealed | Cost to pull one |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising6 cards | 1 in 91 | 32.8% | €140 · 36p | €354 |
| Perfect Order6 cards | 1 in 91 | 32.8% | €130 · 36p | €328 |
| Phantasmal Flames5 cards | 1 in 91 | 32.8% | €150 · 36p | €379 |
| Mega Evolution10 cards | 1 in 91 | 32.8% | €160 · 36p | €404 |
| Destined Rivals11 cards | 1 in 91 | 32.8% | €170 · 36p | €429 |
| Journey Together6 cards | 1 in 91 | 32.8% | €110 · 36p | €278 |
| Prismatic Evolutions32 cards | 1 in 50 | 11.4% | €70 · 6p | €583 |
| 1517 cards | 1 in 31 | 17.7% | €60 · 6p | €312 |
“Cost to pull one” is the sealed price divided by the expected number of Special Illustration Rares of any kind per sealed unit, so it is the cost for any card in the slot, not your specific one (that costs much more). Odds are a binomial approximation across independent packs.
The Special Illustration Rares worth chasing
The priciest Special Illustration Rares across these sets, each with its own pull odds. Tap any card for its full cost-to-pull, BUY / RIP verdict and modelled supply.
Umbreon exPrismatic Evolutions · #161 · 1 in 1600 packs€1275.55
Mega Charizard X exPhantasmal Flames · #125 · 1 in 455 packs€931.78
Team Rocket's Mewtwo exDestined Rivals · #231 · 1 in 1000 packs€570.89
Sylveon exPrismatic Evolutions · #156 · 1 in 1600 packs€483.44
Charizard ex151 · #199 · 1 in 220 packs€391.48
Leafeon exPrismatic Evolutions · #144 · 1 in 1600 packs€371.93
Espeon exPrismatic Evolutions · #155 · 1 in 1600 packs€353.33
Ethan's Ho-Oh exDestined Rivals · #230 · 1 in 1000 packs€284.34
Team Rocket's Moltres exDestined Rivals · #229 · 1 in 1000 packs€275.08
Cynthia's Garchomp exDestined Rivals · #232 · 1 in 1000 packs€253.68
Vaporeon exPrismatic Evolutions · #149 · 1 in 1600 packs€252.77
Flareon exPrismatic Evolutions · #146 · 1 in 1600 packs€251.02How Special Illustration Rare odds work
Every booster pack has one slot that can land on the Special Illustration Rare tier. The pack-odds figure is the chance that slot resolves to any Special Illustration Rare at all; divide it across the Special Illustration Rares in the set and you get each individual card's odds. Summed back up across the slot, the tier lands about 1 in 31 to 1 in 91 packs.
Because each pack is independent, the “1 in N” is a long-run average, not a promise for the next box. Per box, the chance of at least one is higher (shown above) because you get multiple independent tries.
Odds ride a disclosed, versioned community-sampled model (SV/Mega community aggregate, 2026-06 (rev2); Prismatic community sample (TCGplayer 1,200 packs, god-pack-adjusted), 2025; 151 community sample (PokePatch 1,000+ packs), 2025) because the Pokémon TCG publishes no official pack odds. Figures are a binomial-per-pack approximation over Cardmarket-counted pools. Prices are Cardmarket EUR trend references, not sold-price records. As of 2026-07-14. Informational only, not financial advice. Foilio is an independent fan project, unaffiliated with any publisher.
Questions, answered
What are the odds of pulling a Special Illustration Rare in Pokémon?+
Across the 8 recent sets we model, a Special Illustration Rare appears roughly 1 in 31 to 1 in 91 booster packs, or about 11.4% to 32.8% per sealed booster unit. Exact odds vary by set, the per-set table above shows each one. Pokémon does not publish official pack odds, so these are from a disclosed, community-sampled model, not the publisher.
How many packs (or boxes) to pull a Special Illustration Rare?+
Because the rate is about 1 in 31 to 1 in 91 packs, you would open on the order of that many packs, on average, for a single Special Illustration Rare. Averages are not guarantees: a slot is independent every pack, so you can hit early or go far past the average. See the per-set "cost to pull" column for the expected spend cracking sealed at each set's box price.
Is it cheaper to pull a Special Illustration Rare or just buy the single?+
Almost always cheaper to buy the exact card. Cost-to-pull is the box price divided by how many copies of the whole Special Illustration Rare slot you expect per box, and it is spread across every card in the slot, so pulling YOUR specific Special Illustration Rare costs far more than any one single. Each card's page has its own BUY / RIP verdict.
Are these official Pokémon pull rates?+
No. The Pokémon TCG does not publish pack odds, so every figure here rides a disclosed, versioned community-sampled model (SV/Mega community aggregate, 2026-06 (rev2); Prismatic community sample (TCGplayer 1,200 packs, god-pack-adjusted), 2025; 151 community sample (PokePatch 1,000+ packs), 2025). Prices are Cardmarket EUR trend references, not sold-price records. Informational only, not financial advice.