Odds of pulling a Mega Hyper Rare
A Mega Hyper Rare is the top-of-set chase introduced in the Mega Evolution era, the rarest slot CARDCAP models. Across the 4 recent Pokémon sets we model, one shows up about 1 in 1,250 booster packs, roughly 2.84% per sealed unit. Pokémon publishes no pack odds, so these ride a disclosed community-sampled model, ranked and linked to every card below.
Mega Hyper Rare odds by set
| Set | Odds / pack | Per unit | Sealed | Cost to pull one |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising1 card | 1 in 1,250 | 2.84% | €140 · 36p | €4,861 |
| Perfect Order1 card | 1 in 1,250 | 2.84% | €130 · 36p | €4,514 |
| Phantasmal Flames1 card | 1 in 1,250 | 2.84% | €150 · 36p | €5,208 |
| Mega Evolution2 cards | 1 in 1,250 | 2.84% | €160 · 36p | €5,556 |
“Cost to pull one” is the sealed price divided by the expected number of Mega Hyper Rares of any kind per sealed unit, so it is the cost for any card in the slot, not your specific one (that costs much more). Odds are a binomial approximation across independent packs.
The Mega Hyper Rares worth chasing
The priciest Mega Hyper Rares across these sets, each with its own pull odds. Tap any card for its full cost-to-pull, BUY / RIP verdict and modelled supply.
Mega Charizard X exPhantasmal Flames · #130 · 1 in 1250 packs€453.59
Mega Lucario exMega Evolution · #188 · 1 in 2500 packs€186.74
Mega Gardevoir exMega Evolution · #187 · 1 in 2500 packs€165.97
Mega Greninja exChaos Rising · #122 · 1 in 1250 packs€160.05
Mega Zygarde exPerfect Order · #124 · 1 in 1250 packs€110.83How Mega Hyper Rare odds work
Every booster pack has one slot that can land on the Mega Hyper Rare tier. The pack-odds figure is the chance that slot resolves to any Mega Hyper Rare at all; divide it across the Mega Hyper Rares in the set and you get each individual card's odds. Summed back up across the slot, the tier lands about 1 in 1,250 packs.
Because each pack is independent, the “1 in N” is a long-run average, not a promise for the next box. Per box, the chance of at least one is higher (shown above) because you get multiple independent tries.
Odds ride a disclosed, versioned community-sampled model (SV/Mega community aggregate, 2026-06 (rev2)) because the Pokémon TCG publishes no official pack odds. Figures are a binomial-per-pack approximation over Cardmarket-counted pools. Prices are Cardmarket EUR trend references, not sold-price records. As of 2026-07-14. Informational only, not financial advice. Foilio is an independent fan project, unaffiliated with any publisher.
Questions, answered
What are the odds of pulling a Mega Hyper Rare in Pokémon?+
Across the 4 recent sets we model, a Mega Hyper Rare appears roughly 1 in 1,250 booster packs, or about 2.84% per sealed booster unit. Exact odds vary by set, the per-set table above shows each one. Pokémon does not publish official pack odds, so these are from a disclosed, community-sampled model, not the publisher.
How many packs (or boxes) to pull a Mega Hyper Rare?+
Because the rate is about 1 in 1,250 packs, you would open on the order of that many packs, on average, for a single Mega Hyper Rare. Averages are not guarantees: a slot is independent every pack, so you can hit early or go far past the average. See the per-set "cost to pull" column for the expected spend cracking sealed at each set's box price.
Is it cheaper to pull a Mega Hyper Rare or just buy the single?+
Almost always cheaper to buy the exact card. Cost-to-pull is the box price divided by how many copies of the whole Mega Hyper Rare slot you expect per box, and it is spread across every card in the slot, so pulling YOUR specific Mega Hyper Rare costs far more than any one single. Each card's page has its own BUY / RIP verdict.
Are these official Pokémon pull rates?+
No. The Pokémon TCG does not publish pack odds, so every figure here rides a disclosed, versioned community-sampled model (SV/Mega community aggregate, 2026-06 (rev2)). Prices are Cardmarket EUR trend references, not sold-price records. Informational only, not financial advice.