Foilio Study · Open data · Cross-game
In every set we measured, a few cards hold most of the value
Our Pokémon and Magic studies each found the same thing: a handful of cards holds most of a set's summed value. So we checked whether it holds across games, measuring the share held by the top cards across recent Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets (18 sets in all). In the sets we measured, the top 10 cards hold 49-79% of a set's value on average per game, and 67-91% of cards trade under €1. The degree differs by game.
Computed 2026-06-19 from Cardmarket EUR via the open Scryfall (Magic), pokemontcg.io (Pokémon) and YGOPRODeck (Yu-Gi-Oh) APIs. Reference estimates, not sold records, free to cite with a link to this page.
Share of a set's value in its top 10 cards
Averaged across recent sets in each game. “Set value” here is the sum of one copy of every card's price, not the value of what a box actually opens, which also depends on pull rates.
The full comparison
| Game | Top 1 | Top 5 | Top 10 | Under €1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Magic: The Gathering 5 recent sets · Scryfall | 10% | 32% | 49% | 84% |
Pokémon 7 recent sets · pokemontcg.io | 22% | 46% | 58% | 67% |
Yu-Gi-Oh! 6 recent sets · YGOPRODeck | 45% | 70% | 79% | 91% |
Average share of total set value (Cardmarket EUR) held by the top N cards, per game. Even the single flattest set we measured had its top 10 holding over a third of its value.
What it means
- A few cards, most of the value. In the sets we measured, the summed price of a set sits mostly in its top cards, and most other cards trade under €1. This held in all three games we checked.
- The degree differs. Yu-Gi-Oh is the most top-heavy in our data (top 10 ≈ 79%), Magic the flattest (≈ 49%), Pokémon between. We did not measure why, and the Yu-Gi-Oh figure uses a cross-printing price, so it is the least precise of the three.
- What it means for opening packs. When a few cards hold most of a set's value, a pack's worth depends heavily on whether you pull one of them. Our booster box EV study measures that directly for specific boxes. Go deeper per game in our Pokémon set concentration and MTG Reserved List studies.
The sets behind the averages
| Set | Top 10 | <€1 |
|---|---|---|
| Bloomburrow | 48.4% | 83% |
| Murders at Karlov Manor | 59.5% | 89% |
| Outlaws of Thunder Junction | 51% | 88% |
| Duskmourn | 48.2% | 85% |
| Modern Horizons 3 | 36.6% | 74% |
| Set | Top 10 | <€1 |
|---|---|---|
| Maze of Memories | 60.7% | 94% |
| Age of Overlord | 78% | 90% |
| Phantom Nightmare | 79.1% | 93% |
| Legacy of Destruction | 82.8% | 93% |
| The Infinite Forbidden | 84.4% | 85% |
| Rage of the Abyss | 89.9% | 90% |
Pokémon set-level data is in the Pokémon study. Yu-Gi-Oh figures use YGOPRODeck's general (cross-printing) Cardmarket price, so we report only the concentration shape, not per-set top cards.
What this data can't tell you
- What a box is worth. We sum one copy of each card. A box opens many commons and few rares, so its value depends on pull rates we did not model.
- Other games or eras. Three games, recent sets only. Older sets and other games may look different.
- Why. We did not measure print runs, pull rates, play demand or reprints.
- Precise bulk prices. Cards under about €0.25 rest on thin sales, so the under-€1 share is solid but the exact cents are not.
- Yu-Gi-Oh per set. Our Yu-Gi-Oh source prices a card across all its printings, so we report only the overall shape.
Collect one of these games for years and see something we missed? Tell us.
How we computed this
- For each recent set we summed every card's Cardmarket EUR price and measured the share held by the top 1, 5 and 10 cards, Magic via the Scryfall API, Pokémon via TCGdex, Yu-Gi-Oh via YGOPRODeck.
- We compared recent main sets across games for an apples-to-apples view; the curated MTG Reserved List (a different kind of list) is covered separately in its own study.
- It's reproducible, the scripts are in our repo.
Questions
Is trading-card value always concentrated in a few cards?
In the recent Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets we measured, yes. The top 10 cards hold 49-79% of a set's summed value on average, depending on the game, and even the flattest single set we measured still had its top 10 holding over a third. Most cards in these sets (67-91%) trade under €1. That is three games and recent sets only, so we would not call it a rule for every game or era.
Which game's cards are most top-heavy, Magic, Pokémon or Yu-Gi-Oh?
In our data, Yu-Gi-Oh is the most top-heavy (top 10 ≈ 79% of set value, ~91% of cards under €1), Magic the flattest (top 10 ≈ 49%), Pokémon in between. We did not measure why. One caution for Yu-Gi-Oh: our source gives one price per card name across all its printings, so its numbers describe the overall shape only.
Why are most cards in a set priced so low?
We measured the shape, not the cause. Rarity, pull rates, print runs and demand from players and collectors all play a part, and none of them were part of this study. What the data shows is that in every set we measured, a small number of cards account for a large share of the summed price of the set.
How was this measured, and how reliable is it?
For each recent set we summed the Cardmarket EUR price of every card and measured the share held by the top 1/5/10 cards (Magic via Scryfall, Pokémon via TCGdex, Yu-Gi-Oh via YGOPRODeck). The concentration shape is robust. Caveat: YGOPRODeck reports a card's general cross-printing price, so we use Yu-Gi-Oh only for the aggregate shape, never per-set top-card claims; and these are reference estimates, not sold records. See the deeper per-game breakdowns in our Pokémon and Magic studies.
Where does your value sit?
Value your collection free across Magic, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh and more, and see how much of it rides on a few chase cards. No account.
Citing this study? Please link to foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentration. Data licensed CC BY 4.0.
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Cite or embed this study
Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0). Paste the embed on your site for the chart card + a link back, or grab the plain citation.
<a href="https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentration?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
<img src="https://foilio.net/studies/og?stat=49-79%25&label=of%20set%20value%20sits%20in%20the%20top%2010%20cards%2C%20recent%20Magic%2C%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20and%20Yu-Gi-Oh%20sets&title=How%20concentrated%20is%20set%20value%3F%20Top-10%20share%20in%20Magic%2C%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20and%20Yu-Gi-Oh%20sets" alt="How concentrated is set value? Top-10 share in Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets, Foilio" width="600" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px" />
</a>
<p style="font:13px/1.5 system-ui,sans-serif;color:#555;margin:6px 0 0">
Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentration?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral">How concentrated is set value? Top-10 share in Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets, Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-06-19). How concentrated is set value? Top-10 share in Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentrationThe big picture, across every game we measure: The Chase Multiple · The Price Census · The Promo Premium · The Foil Premium