Foilio Study · Open data · Cross-game
Value concentration is a law of trading cards
Our Pokémon and Magic studies each found the same thing: a handful of cards holds most of a set's value. So we tested whether it's universal — measuring the share held by the top cards across recent Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets (18 sets in all). It is: in every game the top 10 cards hold 49–79% of a set's value, and 67–91% of cards trade under €1. Only the degree changes.
Computed 2026-06-19 from Cardmarket EUR via the open Scryfall (Magic), pokemontcg.io (Pokémon) and YGOPRODeck (Yu-Gi-Oh) APIs. Reference estimates, not sold records — free to cite with a link to this page.
Share of a set's value in its top 10 cards
Averaged across recent sets in each game. Different games, different eras, different rules — the same lopsided answer.
The full comparison
| Game | Top 1 | Top 5 | Top 10 | Under €1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Magic: The Gathering 5 recent sets · Scryfall | 10% | 32% | 49% | 84% |
Pokémon 7 recent sets · pokemontcg.io | 22% | 46% | 58% | 67% |
Yu-Gi-Oh! 6 recent sets · YGOPRODeck | 45% | 70% | 79% | 91% |
Average share of total set value (Cardmarket EUR) held by the top N cards, per game. Even the single flattest set we measured had its top 10 holding over a third of its value.
What it means
- The 80/20 of trading cards. Whatever you open, value pools into a few chase cards and the rest is bulk. A “€200 set” is really a few €30–80 cards and a few hundred near-worthless ones — the same in all three games.
- The degree is a fingerprint. Yu-Gi-Oh is the most top-heavy (top 10 ≈ 79%), Magic the flattest (≈ 49%), Pokémon between. Games that funnel power into one or two cards concentrate value harder; games that spread playability across many cards flatten it.
- It's why pack-opening feels the way it does. The expected value of a pack is almost entirely the small chance of one chase card — which is why opening booster boxes usually loses money. Go deeper per game in our Pokémon set concentration and MTG Reserved List studies.
The sets behind the averages
| Set | Top 10 | <€1 |
|---|---|---|
| Bloomburrow | 48.4% | 83% |
| Murders at Karlov Manor | 59.5% | 89% |
| Outlaws of Thunder Junction | 51% | 88% |
| Duskmourn | 48.2% | 85% |
| Modern Horizons 3 | 36.6% | 74% |
| Set | Top 10 | <€1 |
|---|---|---|
| Maze of Memories | 60.7% | 94% |
| Age of Overlord | 78% | 90% |
| Phantom Nightmare | 79.1% | 93% |
| Legacy of Destruction | 82.8% | 93% |
| The Infinite Forbidden | 84.4% | 85% |
| Rage of the Abyss | 89.9% | 90% |
Pokémon set-level data is in the Pokémon study. Yu-Gi-Oh figures use YGOPRODeck's general (cross-printing) Cardmarket price, so we report only the concentration shape, not per-set top cards.
How we computed this
- For each recent set we summed every card's Cardmarket EUR price and measured the share held by the top 1, 5 and 10 cards — Magic via the Scryfall API, Pokémon via pokemontcg.io, Yu-Gi-Oh via YGOPRODeck.
- We compared recent main sets across games for an apples-to-apples view; the curated MTG Reserved List (a different kind of list) is covered separately in its own study.
- It's reproducible — the scripts are in our repo.
Questions
Is trading-card value always concentrated in a few cards?
Across recent Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh sets, yes — it's remarkably consistent. The top 10 cards hold 49–79% of a set's total value depending on the game, and even the flattest single set we measured still had its top 10 holding over a third. The vast majority of every set (67–91%) trades under €1. Value concentration looks like a structural property of trading-card markets, not a quirk of one game.
Which game's cards are most top-heavy — Magic, Pokémon or Yu-Gi-Oh?
Yu-Gi-Oh is the most top-heavy (top 10 ≈ 79% of set value, ~91% of cards under €1), Magic the flattest (top 10 ≈ 49%), Pokémon in between. The likely reason: Yu-Gi-Oh sets funnel value into one or two tournament-defining cards, while Magic spreads it across more playable rares. But all three are heavily concentrated — the difference is degree, not kind.
Why are most trading cards worth so little?
Because supply vastly exceeds demand for the bulk of any set. Print runs are huge and most cards aren't chase cards — they're commons, uncommons and unplayed rares. Value pools into the handful of cards that are rare, iconic or tournament-relevant. It's the same lopsided shape whether you open Magic, Pokémon or Yu-Gi-Oh.
How was this measured, and how reliable is it?
For each recent set we summed the Cardmarket EUR price of every card and measured the share held by the top 1/5/10 cards (Magic via Scryfall, Pokémon via pokemontcg.io, Yu-Gi-Oh via YGOPRODeck). The concentration shape is robust. Caveat: YGOPRODeck reports a card's general cross-printing price, so we use Yu-Gi-Oh only for the aggregate shape, never per-set top-card claims; and these are reference estimates, not sold records. See the deeper per-game breakdowns in our Pokémon and Magic studies.
Where does your value sit?
Value your collection free across Magic, Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh and more — and see how much of it rides on a few chase cards. No account.
Citing this study? Please link to foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentration. Data licensed CC BY 4.0.
Cite or embed this study
Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0). Paste the embed on your site for the chart card + a link back, or grab the plain citation.
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Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentration">Is value concentration a law of trading cards? We checked 3 games — Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-06-19). Is value concentration a law of trading cards? We checked 3 games. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-value-concentration