The Chase Multiple: which trading card game is the biggest lottery?
Every trading card game is a little bit lottery: most cards are cheap, a few are worth a fortune. But how much of a lottery differs enormously. We measured the price of ~220,000 cards across 11 games with one number, the chase multiple: how many times the typical card the top 1% is worth.
Every game, ranked by chase multiple
Top 1% price ÷ median price. Tap a game for its full study.
| Game | Since | Typical | Top 1% | Chase multiple | Under $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorcana | 2023 | $0.13 | $610 | 4,691× | 77% |
| Riftbound | 2025 | $0.34 | $1,218 | 3,582× | 59% |
| One Piece | 2022 | $0.87 | $1,299 | 1,493× | 51% |
| Gundam | 2025 | $0.72 | $925 | 1,285× | 53% |
| Grand Archive | 2022 | $0.37 | $450 | 1,216× | 70% |
| Flesh & Blood | 2019 | $0.27 | $168 | 622× | 68% |
| Magic | 1993 | $0.39 | $210 | 538× | 65% |
| Pokémon | 1999 | $1.29 | $652 | 506× | 47% |
| Star Wars Unlimited | 2024 | $0.28 | $137 | 488× | 72% |
| Yu-Gi-Oh | 2002 | $0.38 | $96 | 253× | 71% |
| Sorcery | 2023 | $2.68 | $339 | 127× | 37% |
The new games are bigger lotteries
The pattern is hard to miss: the five most top-heavy games (Lorcana, Riftbound, One Piece, Gundam, Grand Archive) all launched in 2022 or later and average about 2,453×. The three classics, Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh, average about 432×, roughly five to six times flatter. Modern sets are designed around short-printed alt-art chases sitting on a bulk floor, which stretches the gap between the typical card and the top pull. The classics stay flatter partly because decades of reprints keep even famous cards in supply.
Sorcery breaks the mold
One recent game went the opposite way. Sorcery: Contested Realm is the flattest game in the set (chase multiple just 127×) because it has the highest floor: a median card of $2.68 and only 37% of cards under $1, versus 65–77% almost everywhere else. It is built as a low-supply, high-floor collectible rather than a bulk-plus-chase lottery, the deliberate anti-pattern to the modern trend.
Method & sources
- For each game we pulled the TCGplayer market price of every priced card (one price per product, the Normal printing where present) across every set, via the open tcgcsv.com dataset, 219,665 card prices in total.
- The chase multiple is the 99th-percentile price divided by the median price. Using the 99th percentile (not the single max) keeps it robust to one freak card.
- Sealed product, tokens and non-card listings are excluded by the per-product price join; each game spans its whole print history.
- TCGplayer market price via the open tcgcsv.com dataset. Valued 2026-07-05. Reference estimates for raw cards, not sold or graded records; prices move. Reproducible from the open dataset.
FAQ
Which trading card game has the most valuable chase cards relative to the typical card?
Lorcana. Its chase multiple, the top 1% price divided by the median price, is about 4,691×: the typical Lorcana card is a median $0.13 while a top-1% card is around $610. It is the most top-heavy of the 11 games we measured. Riftbound, One Piece, Gundam and Grand Archive round out the top five.
Are newer card games bigger lotteries than Magic or Pokémon?
Yes, clearly. The five most top-heavy games in our data all launched in 2022 or later, and they average about 2,453×. The three classics, Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh, average about 432× — roughly five to six times flatter. Modern sets lean hard on short-printed alt-art chases sitting on top of a bulk floor.
Which trading card game has the least bulk?
Sorcery. It is both the flattest game (chase multiple just 127×) and the one with the highest floor: a median card of $2.68 and only 37% of cards under $1, versus 65–77% in most other games. Small print runs lift the whole price floor, so a Sorcery "common" is not bulk the way it is elsewhere.
How is the chase multiple calculated, and where does the data come from?
For each game we took the TCGplayer market price of every priced card (one price per product, the Normal printing where present) across every set, via the open tcgcsv.com dataset (TCGplayer market price via the open tcgcsv.com dataset, valued 2026-07-05). The chase multiple is the 99th-percentile price divided by the median price. Using the 99th percentile rather than the single most expensive card keeps it robust to one outlier. These are reference estimates, not sold or graded records, and prices move.
Whatever you collect, see what your cards are worth.
Foilio values any card across Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, One Piece, Lorcana and more, live prices in EUR & USD, your whole collection tracked. Free, no signup.
Related research
Is value concentration a law of TCGs?
Across Magic, Pokémon & Yu-Gi-Oh the top 10 cards hold 49–79% of set value.
66×The Enchanted Premium (Lorcana)
The biggest lottery, explained: a Lorcana Enchanted is a median 66× the standard foil.
403×The Gundam Parallel Premium
Gundam's parallel alt-arts carry all the value; an LR++ is 403× the base.
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