Foilio Study · Open data
In a Pokémon set, a handful of cards hold much of the value
Prices as of 2026-11-02, Cardmarket price guide (EUR). Today's prices will differ.
We added up the Cardmarket trend price of every priced card in 8 Pokémon sets, 1,657 cards in total, and measured where the summed value sits. The top 5 cards hold an average of 46% of a set's summed value, while 26-76% of the cards in each set trade for under €1.
Computed 2026-11-02 from Cardmarket price guide (EUR trend), from Cardmarket's published download files. Reference estimates, not sold records, free to cite with a link to this page.
How each set's value splits across its cards
Each bar is one set's total value, broken into the share held by its most valuable card, cards 2-5, cards 6-10, and everything else. Sorted oldest to newest.
What the numbers say
- Base Set is very top-heavy. A complete 1999 Base Set sums to about €1,414 at Cardmarket trend (one of every card), and €441 of that (31.2%) is the holo Charizard. The top 10 cards are 71.6% of the sum. Caveat: the files do not name editions, and Cardmarket lists other products for the same Base Set cards (for this Charizard, from about €875 to about €3,843). We use the main one, so a set of another edition would sum differently.
- The sets from 2019 on are less top-heavy at the top 10. Their top 10 average 59%, against 71.6% for Base Set, though one card can still be a large share (Paldean Fates’ Mew ex is 28.9%). In most of these sets the median card is a few cents, a thin, noisy bulk price.
- Most cards trade for under €1. 26-76% of the cards in each set we checked trade under €1. The rarity-price ladder shows the same split by rarity.
- Why it matters when you open or buy. With much of a set's value in a few cards, a sealed box's value depends heavily on whether you hit them. An expected-value calculation with pull rates is the right tool for that, see Foilio's box-EV tool before you rip. And it isn't just Pokémon, we found the same pattern in Magic and Yu-Gi-Oh in the cross-game study.
The full data
Every figure below is computed from Cardmarket price guide (EUR trend), from Cardmarket's published download files, 2026-11-02. “Master set” here is the sum of one of every card number at trend price; reverse holos are not included, and subsets the source lists as separate sets (for example Crown Zenith’s Galarian Gallery) are not counted, which is why Crown Zenith looks so low.
| Set | Master set | Top 1 | Top 5 | Top 10 | Under €1 | Median card |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base Set 1999 · top by EU trend: Charizard €441 | €1,414 | 31.2% | 56.6% | 71.6% | 26% | €3.17 |
Cosmic Eclipse 2019 · top by EU trend: Togepi & Cleffa & Igglybuff-GX €476 | €5,167 | 9.2% | 34.3% | 53% | 58% | €0.36 |
Vivid Voltage 2020 · top by EU trend: Pikachu VMAX €140 | €575 | 24.3% | 44.9% | 57.6% | 71% | €0.15 |
Crown Zenith 2023 · top by EU trend: Pikachu €59 | €240 | 24.3% | 47.4% | 63.7% | 75% | €0.09 |
Scarlet & Violet Base 2023 · top by EU trend: Gardevoir ex €47 | €486 | 9.6% | 35.6% | 50.5% | 76% | €0.06 |
Scarlet & Violet: 151 2023 · top by EU trend: Charizard ex €324 | €1,806 | 18% | 42.9% | 62.3% | 73% | €0.10 |
Paldean Fates 2024 · top by EU trend: Mew ex €487 | €1,687 | 28.9% | 57.8% | 64.8% | 38% | €2.34 |
Twilight Masquerade 2024 · top by EU trend: Greninja ex €158 | €826 | 19.2% | 48.3% | 61.3% | 71% | €0.08 |
Cards with no available reference price are excluded from totals. Special-illustration / secret rares are included as separate cards. Individual chase-card prices move daily. “Top by EU trend” is the single highest Cardmarket (EUR) trend price, and neighbouring cards can swap places from day to day: in Scarlet & Violet base, Gardevoir ex (€47) and the Drowzee illustration rare (€46) are within about €1.
How we computed this
- For each set we took every card, including secret and illustration rares, from the open pokemon-tcg-data catalogue and joined it to Cardmarket's published product and price guide files on product id. We did not scrape any page.
- We took each card's Cardmarket EUR trend and summed them into a “master-set value.” A trend over 5× from its own 30-day average counts as a bad value, and that card's 30-day average is used instead (2 cards). 281 trends over 8× their low stay as they are, because the low is often one cheap listing. 16 cards could not be matched and are left out.
- We sorted cards by value and measured the share held by the top 1, 3, 5 and 10, plus the percentage under €1 and the median.
What this data can’t tell you
- Vintage in general. Base Set is the only pre-2019 set here.
- Exact bulk values. Sub-€0.25 trend prices rest on few sales, so medians of a few cents are rough.
- Subsets listed separately. Galleries the source files as their own set (such as Crown Zenith’s Galarian Gallery) are missing from those totals.
- Pack value. We did not use pull rates, so this is not an expected value for opening product.
- Change over time. One snapshot (2026-11-02); we did not test whether the pattern holds.
Collect Pokémon for years and see something we missed? Tell us.
Questions
How much of a Pokémon set's value is in the rare cards?
Across the 8 sets we measured, the single most valuable card holds 9.2-31.2% of the set's entire market value, the top 5 cards hold 34.3-57.8% (average 46%), and the top 10 cards hold 50.5-71.6%. In these sets, much of the summed value sits in a few cards, and most cards trade for under €1.
What percentage of Pokémon cards are worth under €1?
In every set we measured, 26-76% of the priced cards trade under €1 (average 61%). In most modern sets the median card is a few cents. Market prices for bulk cards are thin and often reflect very few sales, so treat those cent figures as rough.
Are older Pokémon sets more concentrated than modern ones?
We measured only one vintage set, so we cannot say that for older sets in general. In 1999's Base Set the top 10 cards held 71.6% of the summed value and the holo Charizard held 31.2%. The sets from 2019 on are less top-heavy (top 10 averaging 59%); they also have more high-rarity cards per set, though we did not test whether that is the reason.
Where does this data come from, and can I trust it?
We summed the Cardmarket EUR trend price of every card in each set (Cardmarket price guide (EUR trend), from Cardmarket's published download files), then measured the share held by the most valuable cards. These are reference estimates, not sold or graded records, and individual chase-card prices move daily. This is one snapshot; we did not test how stable the pattern is over time. We never scrape marketplaces and never invent a number.
What does value concentration mean for opening booster packs?
We did not model pull rates, so we cannot give a pack's expected value from this study. What it does show is that most cards in these sets trade under €1 and much of the value sits in a few cards. Before opening sealed product, compare a box's expected value with its price; you can do that free on Foilio's box-EV tool.
See where your value sits
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Citing this study? Please link to foilio.net/studies/pokemon-set-value-concentration. Our text and charts are CC BY 4.0; the underlying prices belong to their sources.
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Cite or embed this study
Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0). Paste the embed on your site for the chart card + a link back, or grab the plain citation.
<a href="https://foilio.net/studies/pokemon-set-value-concentration?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral" target="_blank" rel="noopener">
<img src="https://foilio.net/studies/og?stat=31.2%25&label=of%201999%20Base%20Set's%20summed%20trend%20value%20is%20the%20holo%20Charizard&title=Where%20a%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20set's%20value%20sits%3A%20a%20concentration%20study" alt="Where a Pokémon set's value sits: a concentration study, Foilio" width="600" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px" />
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Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/pokemon-set-value-concentration?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral">Where a Pokémon set's value sits: a concentration study, Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-11-02). Where a Pokémon set's value sits: a concentration study. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/pokemon-set-value-concentrationThe big picture, across every game we measure: The Chase Multiple · The Price Census · The Promo Premium · The Foil Premium