Foilio Study · Open data · Sealed
Is it worth opening a booster box?
We ran 7 recent Pokémon sets through Foilio's expected-value engine. The median booster box holds about €81 of single-card value, €69 after selling fees, while a box typically retails around €100 to 160. So on average, opening is a loss. You're not buying cards; you're buying a small chance at a chase card.
Computed 2026-06-19 from Foilio's expected-value engine (/api/ev) over Cardmarket EUR prices via pokemontcg.io. EV is a trimmed-average model estimate, not a guarantee, free to cite with a link to this page.
Box value vs. what a box costs
Expected single-card value of a sealed box per set. The shaded band is the typical box retail price (€100 to 160), bars that fall short of it lose money on average.
Bars scaled to typical box retail (€160); a full bar ≈ what a box costs. Green = singles value beats the bottom of retail (€100, Scarlet & Violet: 151 only); gold = below retail (most sets), i.e. opening loses on average.
What the numbers say
- Opening is usually a loss. For most recent sets the box's singles value (≈ €76 typical) sits below the €100 to 160 you'd pay for the box, and worse after sell fees. If you want specific cards, buying singles is cheaper than ripping.
- You're paying for the chase. You can expect under one Special Illustration Rare per box (0.4); the value lives in a top card you probably won't hit, e.g. Scarlet & Violet: 151's Charizard ex (€236) at ~6% per box. That's the value-concentration law in action.
- Hype sets are the exception. Scarlet & Violet: 151 clears ~€194 in singles, above retail, because demand for its cards is unusually high. When a box is +EV, the market usually prices the sealed box up to match.
The full data
| Set | Box EV | After fees | Top chase (odds/box) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet: 151 | €194.23 | €165.10 | Charizard ex €236 · 6%/box |
| Temporal Forces | €82.63 | €70.24 | Raging Bolt ex €62 · 4%/box |
| Surging Sparks | €82.12 | €69.81 | Pikachu ex €273 · 4%/box |
| Stellar Crown | €81.49 | €69.27 | Squirtle €60 · 24%/box |
| Twilight Masquerade | €73.71 | €62.65 | Greninja ex €224 · 4%/box |
| Paradox Rift | €71.74 | €60.98 | Groudon €79 · 10%/box |
| Obsidian Flames | €64.09 | €54.48 | Charizard ex €79 · 6%/box |
Box EV = expected single-card value over per-rarity pull odds × trimmed average prices (36 packs/box). “After fees” applies typical sell friction. Want a specific box at today's prices? Run it live on the box-EV tool.
How we computed this
- We ran each set through Foilio's expected-value engine (the same one behind /ev).
- EV = per-rarity pull odds × trimmed average card prices (so one mispriced outlier can't skew a set), summed across a box, then adjusted for typical sell fees.
- We compare against typical box retail (€100 to 160, widely-known pricing, we never fetch sealed prices).
- Reproducible, the script is in our repo.
Questions
Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box, or should you buy singles?
On average, opening loses money. Across 7 recent sets the median box holds about €81 of single-card value (€69 after selling fees), while booster boxes typically retail around €100 to 160. If you only want specific cards, buying the singles is usually cheaper than ripping packs. Open boxes for the fun and the chance at a chase card, not as an investment.
What is the expected value (EV) of a Pokémon booster box?
For most recent Scarlet & Violet sets, the expected single-card value of a box is roughly €64 to €90 (typical ≈ €76 excluding hype sets), or a bit less after sell fees. The big exception is Scarlet & Violet: 151, at about €194, demand for that set is unusually high. These are trimmed-average model estimates over per-rarity pull odds, not guarantees: a box is a distribution, not a fixed payout.
Why is a booster box worth less than it costs?
Because a set's value is concentrated in a few chase cards you probably won't pull, you can expect under one Special Illustration Rare per box (about 0.4). Most packs return commons, uncommons and low-value rares. The sealed price reflects the small chance at a big hit plus collector demand, not the average singles return. It's the flip side of our value-concentration findings.
How is this EV calculated, and can I trust it?
It's Foilio's expected-value model: per-rarity pull odds × trimmed average card prices (so one mispriced outlier can't skew it), summed over a box, then adjusted for typical sell fees. The same engine powers our box-EV tool, and the math was independently audited. It's an estimate of the average outcome, your actual box will land somewhere across a wide range. Prices are Cardmarket EUR references, not sold records.
Thinking of ripping a box?
Check any set's expected value at today's prices first, free, with the chase odds and a break-even box price. No account. Or rip a few simulated boxes and watch the math play out.
Citing this study? Please link to foilio.net/studies/booster-box-ev. Data licensed CC BY 4.0.
Thinking of cracking a box? Value your singles first.
Foilio values any card across Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, One Piece, Lorcana and more, live prices in EUR & USD, your whole collection tracked. Free, no signup.
Cite or embed this study
Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0). Paste the embed on your site for the chart card + a link back, or grab the plain citation.
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<img src="https://foilio.net/studies/og?stat=%E2%82%AC81&label=the%20median%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20booster%20box's%20singles%20value%2C%20usually%20below%20what%20a%20box%20costs&title=Is%20it%20worth%20opening%20a%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20booster%20box%3F%20The%20EV%2C%20across%20recent%20sets" alt="Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box? The EV, across recent sets, Foilio" width="600" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px" />
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Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/booster-box-ev?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral">Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box? The EV, across recent sets, Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-06-19). Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box? The EV, across recent sets. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/booster-box-evThe big picture, across every game we measure: The Chase Multiple · The Price Census · The Promo Premium · The Foil Premium