Foilio Study · Open data · Sealed
Is it worth opening a booster box?
We ran 7 recent Pokémon sets through Foilio's expected-value engine. The median booster box holds about €81 of single-card value, €69 after selling fees, while a box typically retails around €100 to 160. So, counting singles value only, opening loses money on average in our model. Most of the expected value sits in a few cards that most boxes will not contain.
Computed 2026-06-19 from Foilio's expected-value engine (/api/ev) over Cardmarket EUR prices via pokemontcg.io. EV is a trimmed-average model estimate, not a guarantee, free to cite with a link to this page.
Box value vs. what a box costs
Expected single-card value of a sealed box per set. The shaded band is the typical box retail price (€100 to 160), bars that fall short of it lose money on average.
Bars scaled to typical box retail (€160); a full bar ≈ what a box costs. Green = singles value beats the bottom of retail (€100, Scarlet & Violet: 151 only); gold = below retail (most sets), i.e. opening loses on average.
What the numbers say
- On singles value, opening usually loses. For most recent sets the box's singles value (≈ €76 typical) sits below the €100 to 160 you'd pay for the box, and worse after sell fees. If you want specific cards, buying singles is usually cheaper than opening.
- Most of the value is in a few cards. In our model you can expect under one Special Illustration Rare per box (0.4); much of the value sits in a top card most boxes won't contain, e.g. Scarlet & Violet: 151's Charizard ex (€236) at ~6% per box (estimated odds). See our value-concentration study.
- One set is the exception. Scarlet & Violet: 151 clears ~€194 in singles, above the retail range we compare against. We did not measure why, or what sealed boxes of that set actually sell for.
The full data
| Set | Box EV | After fees | Top chase (odds/box) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scarlet & Violet: 151 | €194.23 | €165.10 | Charizard ex €236 · 6%/box |
| Temporal Forces | €82.63 | €70.24 | Raging Bolt ex €62 · 4%/box |
| Surging Sparks | €82.12 | €69.81 | Pikachu ex €273 · 4%/box |
| Stellar Crown | €81.49 | €69.27 | Squirtle €60 · 24%/box |
| Twilight Masquerade | €73.71 | €62.65 | Greninja ex €224 · 4%/box |
| Paradox Rift | €71.74 | €60.98 | Groudon €79 · 10%/box |
| Obsidian Flames | €64.09 | €54.48 | Charizard ex €79 · 6%/box |
Box EV = expected single-card value over per-rarity pull odds × trimmed average prices (36 packs/box). “After fees” applies typical sell friction. Want a specific box at today's prices? Run it live on the box-EV tool.
How we computed this
- We ran each set through Foilio's expected-value engine (the same one behind /ev).
- EV = per-rarity pull odds × trimmed average card prices (so one mispriced outlier can't skew a set), summed across a box, then adjusted for typical sell fees.
- We compare against typical box retail (€100 to 160, widely-known pricing, we never fetch sealed prices).
- Reproducible, the script is in our repo.
What this data can't tell you
- Exact pull rates. The odds in our model are estimates, not official figures. If they are off, the EV moves with them.
- What sealed boxes are worth. We compare singles value to a typical retail range. We did not price sealed boxes, and many collectors buy sealed product to keep sealed.
- What you can actually sell the bulk for. Commons and uncommons carry thin, few-sale prices, and what you can get for them in practice may be lower.
- Other games and older sets. This is recent Pokémon sets only, on Cardmarket EUR prices.
Open boxes of these sets regularly and see something we missed? Tell us.
Questions
Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box, or should you buy singles?
On singles value alone, in our model, opening loses money on average. Across 7 recent sets the median box holds about €81 of single-card value (€69 after selling fees), while booster boxes typically retail around €100 to 160. If you only want specific cards, buying the singles is usually cheaper than opening packs. Plenty of people open boxes for the fun of it, and that is a fine reason; this page only measures the singles math.
What is the expected value (EV) of a Pokémon booster box?
For most recent Scarlet & Violet sets, our model puts the expected single-card value of a box at roughly €64 to €90 (typical ≈ €76 excluding the outlier), or a bit less after sell fees. The big exception is Scarlet & Violet: 151, at about €194. These are trimmed-average model estimates over per-rarity pull odds, and the pull odds are estimates, not official figures. A box is a distribution, not a fixed payout.
Why is a booster box worth less than it costs?
We measured the gap, not its cause. What the model shows: most of a box's expected value sits in a few cards you will usually not pull (under one Special Illustration Rare per box on average, about 0.4), and most packs return commons, uncommons and low-value rares. Many of those cards are bulk, and bulk prices rest on thin, few-sale data, so their contribution is rough. See also our value-concentration study.
How is this EV calculated, and can I trust it?
It's Foilio's expected-value model: per-rarity pull odds × trimmed average card prices (so one mispriced outlier can't skew it), summed over a box, then adjusted for typical sell fees. The same engine powers our box-EV tool. It's an estimate of the average outcome; your actual box will land somewhere across a wide range, and if the pull-odds estimates are off, so is the EV. Prices are Cardmarket EUR references, not sold records.
Thinking of ripping a box?
Check any set's expected value at today's prices first, free, with the chase odds and a break-even box price. No account. Or rip a few simulated boxes and watch the math play out.
Citing this study? Please link to foilio.net/studies/booster-box-ev. Data licensed CC BY 4.0.
Thinking of cracking a box? Value your singles first.
Foilio values any card across Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, One Piece, Lorcana and more, live prices in EUR & USD, your whole collection tracked. Free, no signup.
Cite or embed this study
Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0). Paste the embed on your site for the chart card + a link back, or grab the plain citation.
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<img src="https://foilio.net/studies/og?stat=%E2%82%AC81&label=the%20median%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20booster%20box's%20singles%20value%2C%20usually%20below%20what%20a%20box%20costs&title=Is%20it%20worth%20opening%20a%20Pok%C3%A9mon%20booster%20box%3F%20The%20EV%2C%20across%20recent%20sets" alt="Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box? The EV, across recent sets, Foilio" width="600" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px" />
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Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/booster-box-ev?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral">Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box? The EV, across recent sets, Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-06-19). Is it worth opening a Pokémon booster box? The EV, across recent sets. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/booster-box-evThe big picture, across every game we measure: The Chase Multiple · The Price Census · The Promo Premium · The Foil Premium