The Secret Rare Creep: a quarter of a modern Pokémon set is numbered above the set total
In April 2000, Team Rocket smuggled one extra card above its printed set total — Dark Raichu 83/82, the first secret rare. It stayed an easter egg for fifteen years. Then it became the business model: the median 2025 expansion numbers 27.7% of its cards above the set total, and Paldean Fates hides 62.9%. We counted all 129 main expansions. No prices — just the numbering.
The creep, year by year
Median share of cards numbered above the printed set total, per release year. 2026 covers January-July.
From easter egg to business model
The jump has two gears. Sun & Moon (2017) industrialized the space above the number — rainbow rares and gold cards pushed the median from ~4% to ~14% overnight. Then Scarlet & Violet (2023) made it the main event: Special Illustration Rares and full-art chases now live almost exclusively above the printed total, and the era median sits at 27.7%. In absolute terms the 2023-26 era has already shipped 1,261 above-the-number cards — more than the previous twenty-four years combined. This is the engine behind the set-size growth we measured in Set Bloat and the value gap measured in the Alt-Art Premium.
| Era | Median share above the number | Above-number cards shipped |
|---|---|---|
| 1999-2010 (Base → HGSS) | 0.9% | 175 |
| 2011-2016 (BW / XY) | 3.6% | 148 |
| 2017-2019 (Sun & Moon) | 12.4% | 308 |
| 2020-2022 (Sword & Shield) | 9.7% | 270 |
| 2023-2026 (Scarlet & Violet / Mega) | 27.7% | 1,261 |
The ten most secret-heavy sets
Printed total vs real total; share numbered above the set size.
| Set | Released | Printed | Real total | Above the number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paldean Fates | 2024 | 91 | 245 | 62.9% |
| White Flare | 2025 | 86 | 173 | 50.3% |
| Black Bolt | 2025 | 86 | 172 | 50% |
| Shrouded Fable | 2024 | 64 | 99 | 35.4% |
| Paradox Rift | 2023 | 182 | 266 | 31.6% |
| Paldea Evolved | 2023 | 193 | 279 | 30.8% |
| Mega Evolution | 2025 | 132 | 188 | 29.8% |
| Chaos Rising | 2026 | 86 | 122 | 29.5% |
| Generations | 2016 | 83 | 117 | 29.1% |
| Perfect Order | 2026 | 88 | 124 | 29% |
Method & sources
- Every main expansion on the open pokemontcg.io API with a printed set total and at least 60 cards (129 sets, 1999-2026). The share is (total − printed total) ÷ total.
- “Above the number” covers secret rares, gold/hyper rares, Special Illustration Rares AND bonus galleries with their own numbering (Radiant Collection, Trainer Gallery) — every card beyond the printed count, because all of them are chase-slot vehicles.
- No prices are used anywhere in this study. Promo pools and mini sets without a printed total are excluded. Known-fact checks reproduce: Base Set 102/102, Evolving Skies 14%, Scarlet & Violet base 23%. Valued 2026-07-07; reproducible from the open API.
FAQ
What is a secret rare in Pokémon?
A card numbered above the printed set total — a 191/182. The slot began as a single easter egg: the first was Dark Raichu 83/82 in Team Rocket (April 2000). Today the space above the number holds the set's real chases: full-art Special Illustration Rares, gold Hyper Rares, and bonus galleries with their own numbering (Radiant Collection, Trainer Gallery). Our metric counts everything beyond the printed total.
How much of a modern Pokémon set is secret-numbered?
The median 2025 expansion put 27.7% of its cards above the printed total, and 2026 is tracking at ~29%. Compare the Base era's ~0.9% and the BW/XY era's ~3.6%. In absolute terms, 2025 alone shipped 407 above-the-number cards — more than the 175 of the entire 1999-2010 period combined.
Which Pokémon set has the most secret rares?
By share, Paldean Fates (2024): 91 printed cards but 245 total — 62.9% of the set lives above the number. The 2025 reprint pair Black Bolt & White Flare runs ~50% each: for every card in the printed set, there is another one hiding above it.
How was this measured, and where does the data come from?
Pure counting via the open pokemontcg.io API (set numbering (printedTotal vs total) via the open pokemontcg.io API, valued 2026-07-07): every main expansion with a printed total and at least 60 cards (129 sets) contributes (total − printedTotal) ÷ total. No prices are used. Promo pools and mini sets without a printed total are excluded. Known facts reproduce exactly: Base Set is 102/102 (0%), Evolving Skies 14%, the Scarlet & Violet base set 23%.
Pulled something numbered above the set total? See what it's worth.
Foilio values any card across Pokémon, Magic, Yu-Gi-Oh, One Piece, Lorcana and more, live prices in EUR & USD, your whole collection tracked. Free, no signup.
Related research
The Alt-Art Premium
What the cards above the number are worth: a SIR sells for a median 33× the plain version of the same ex.
4.8×Set Bloat: the print firehose
The cross-game view: Pokémon sets got 2.1× bigger, and this study is the mechanism.
29 gamesThe Chase Multiple
Chase slots stacked on a bulk floor is the modern design everywhere — measured across 29 games.
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Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/pokemon-secret-rare-creep?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral">The Secret Rare Creep: a quarter of a modern Pokémon set is numbered above the set total, Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-07-07). The Secret Rare Creep: a quarter of a modern Pokémon set is numbered above the set total. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/pokemon-secret-rare-creepThe big picture, across every game we measure: The Chase Multiple · The Price Census · The Promo Premium · The Foil Premium